Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are showing 1 to 2 cent losses in the front months on Friday. Due to the recent lagging sales totals, total export commitments are now 9.2% below the same time a year ago. Even with a reduction in the WASDE forecast on Tuesday, shipments and unshipped sales are just 75% of the 2.3 bbu projection vs. the average of 84%. Most of that can be blamed on the lack of unshipped sales, as exports are 53% of USDA’s number, 2% ahead of the average. BAGE pegged the Argentine corn harvest at 21.2% complete on 4/10, 2.1% above normal but lagging 3.5% from last year. An international tender from Turkey is seeking 300,000 MT of corn and closes on April 24.

May 19 Corn is at $3.59, down 1 cent,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.67 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.75 3/4, down 1 cent

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.87 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are fractionally lower at midday. Front month meal futures are up 90 cents/ton and May soy oil 2 points lower. Ahead of Monday’s NOPA crush report, analysts are expecting to see March crush at 168.028 mbu. If realized that would be down from last year’s record, but still the second largest March total ever. Soy oil stocks are seen at around 1.783 billion pounds. Export commitments for 2018/19, compared to USDA’s projected total, are 86% complete vs. the 5-year average at 95%. Shipments are 61% of that projection (84% average), as the large quantity of outstanding sales is 18% larger than last year. Chinese March imports of soybeans totaled 4.91 MMT, with the 2019 YTD total (Jan-Mar) down 14.4% yr/yr at 16.75 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that the Argentine soybean crop is 16.9% harvested, lagging last year’s progress by 6.7% but 2% above normal.

May 19 Soybeans are at $8.95, down 1/4 cent,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.08 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.14, down 1/2 cent,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.18 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

May 19 Soybean Meal is at $308.10, up $0.90

May 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.96, down $0.02

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are trading fractionally to 2 cents lower in the winter wheat contracts. MPLS is down 5-6 cents on profit taking after rallying 12 cents this week from the contract low. With the sales improving vs. year ago, total commitments are now 6.8% above this week in 2018. They are now 96% of the newly updated USDA projection of 945 mbu, with the 5-year average at 102%. Egypt’s GASC purchased 240,000 MT of wheat in their tender on Friday. It was all Black Sea origin, with 180,000 MT sourced from Romania, and 60,000 MT for Ukraine. US did present the cheapest FOB offer but was priced out when including freight.

May 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.60 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

May 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.30, down 1/2 cent,

May 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.28 1/4, down 5 cents

--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are up 12.5 to 70 cents on Friday. Feeder cattle futures are mixed at midday, with nearby April down 32.5 cents and other front months higher. The CME feeder cattle index was down 28 cents on April 10 at $143.35. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Friday morning, tightening the Ch/Se spread to $6.95. Choice boxes were down 10 cents at $228.73, with Select boxes $1.83 higher at $219.95. USDA estimated week to date cattle slaughter at 471,000 head through Thursday. That would be 6,000 lower last week and 7,000 head fewer than the same week a year ago. The blizzard in the Plains shut down a number of highways. A few cash cattle sales of $124 were reported in TX and KS this week, with bids of $126-127 so far in NE on Friday.

Apr 19 Cattle are at $126.175, up $0.175,

Jun 19 Cattle are at $121.125, up $0.700,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $117.950, up $0.575,

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.100, down $0.325

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $150.200, up $0.350

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $158.425, up $0.775

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are mixed, with contracts anywhere from 37.5 cents lower to 37.5 cents higher. April is up 7.5 cents as it converges with the Index at expiration today. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 17 cents from the previous day @ $79.36 on April 10. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $2.25 higher at $86.68 per cwt in the morning report, with just the Picnic reported lower. The national base hog carcass value was up $1.13 in the AM report, at an average weighted price of $75.69. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 1.855 million head through Thursday, down 44,000 from the previous week but still 26,000 above last year.

Apr 19 Hogs are at $79.300, up $0.075,

May 19 Hogs are at $88.775, up $0.375

Jun 19 Hogs are at $97.325, down $0.375

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are posting string triple digit gains in the front months on Friday. May cotton options expire today, resulting in some position squaring activity. Total export commitments for upland cotton did gain a little ground vs. a year ago last week, now down 12.5%. USDA’s projected 15 million bale projected export total is now 95% achieved via total commitments, even with the average. China has approved an additional 800,000 MT import quota for 2019, on top of the 840,000 MT TRQ required by WTO. The Cotlook A Index was down 50 points at 87.20 on April 11. The weekly AWP was updated to 69.21, 99 points higher than the previous week.

May 19 Cotton is at 78.26, up 128 points,

Jul 19 Cotton is at 78.82, up 108 points

Oct 19 Cotton is at 78.95, up 201 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 77.370, up 78 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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