How Far Can Corn Run?

In the last few years, there have been plenty of articles some mine floating around that often throw out the line, "rains make grain." However, I always followed that up with an "until it doesn't." Well, this year might be that year. There is no secret about the wet weather that is hampering, if not wholly stalling planting progress across many key producing states. This has led to tons of online and in-person discussion about preventive planting and reduced yield an attempt to say what it will be is futile at this point.

Addressing the acreage portion of it first and leaving yield unchanged, a cut to 88 million acres (4 million below the USDA) planted would drop ending stocks to near 1.8 billion bushels 84 million planted then drops ending stocks to near 1.2 billion bushels. Everybody is talking about this side of the current story. A potentially very bullish outcome is hard to ignore, especially with conditions as they are. However, certain demand aspects are very elastic; others not as much.

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