Wheat - Just My Opinion

Weekly Wheat Export Sales old crop vs. 200-700 K T. expected new crop vs. none expected

In the beginning of the day US wheat futures get blasted along with the rest of the Ag sector. The wheat market was able to give us an intra-day minor bounce that managed to hold together as the day progressed. Im going to call this inter-market spreading; buying wheat vs. the cascading lower corn and soybeans. Weather has improved some for the recently planted HRW in the US as well as the recently planted wheat in the Black Sea area. These winter crops are not out of the woods by a long shot but how does one trade a soon to be dormant crop for the next 5 months? Going forward US wheat traders will continue to monitor world prices/demand. Demand for US wheat has been okay but not to the extent that would make the US a world leader unless its to the downside.

Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet. The HRW market at the Gulf slips a bit while the SRW market holds onto recent firmness. Spreads in Chgo showed a bullish bias out to May and then sagged going forward. KC spreads ran steady to fractionally softer out to May and then lost some ground.

The other day I talked about Dec Chgo wheat trading down to the $4.00 level were there as we traded $6.00 this morning. I talked about Dec KC wheat trading down to $5.40 we blew that idea apart as we traded down to $5.32 this morning. Granted some short term downside objectives have been met technical momentum indicators clearly show a lower bias going forward. With that said another down day tomorrow may lead to some upflagging over the next few days.

Daily Support & Resistance 10/29

Dec Chgo Wheat: $6.03 - $6.19

Dec KC Wheat: $5.35 - $5.52

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must considerwhether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.